Demographic Transition in Indian States
India is experiencing a significant demographic transition, with various States at different stages. While this presents opportunities, it also poses challenges.
Ageing States
- Kerala and Tamil Nadu: Expected to become "ageing States" by 2036 with elderly populations exceeding 22% and 20%, respectively.
Youthful States
- Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand: Their working-age populations will continue to rise beyond 2031.
- Karnataka and Maharashtra: Balancing growth with the onset of ageing pressure.
RBI Recommendations
- Ageing States: Advised to "rationalise" subsidies to manage rising pension costs.
- Youthful States: Urged to "invest heavily in human capital" to utilize their demographic dividend.
Political and Economic Implications
- Southern States face reduced Central tax devolution and lower parliamentary representation.
- Youthful States have a "window of opportunity" but face challenges in education spending and employability.
- Challenges include manufacturing automation and AI.
Gender and Ageing
- Ageing disproportionately affects women who live longer but often lack financial assets.
Need for Policy Changes
- Industrial Policy: New jobs needed in sectors like green energy and care economy.
- Healthcare and Pension Services: Youthful States should build these services now.
- Social Pensions: State needs to expand social pensions to prevent financial dependency among the elderly.
Ultimately, without substantial policy shifts and investments in public geriatric care, "graceful ageing" will remain exclusive to the wealthy.
