The End of the US-Russia Nuclear Arms-Control Treaty
The decision by the Trump Administration to let the last nuclear arms-control treaty with Russia lapse marks a significant shift in global nuclear weapons management, moving away from the traditional treaty-based approaches established since the 1950s.
Reasons for Policy Shift
- Concerns about:
- China's rapid nuclear expansion
- Proliferation of new delivery systems
- Growing importance of tactical and theatre-level nuclear weapons
Impact on Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)
- START previously capped:
- 1,550 deployed strategic warheads
- 700 deployed delivery systems
- Verification through rigorous data exchanges and inspections has been lost.
Implications of Treaty Lapse
- Loss of great-power parity symbolism for Russia vs. the US's larger economy and technological lead.
- Potential for a renewed arms race due to:
- Novel systems like hypersonic vehicles
- Dual-capable missiles
- Exotic delivery platforms
Global Repercussions
- Vulnerable states may pursue nuclear options with fewer constraints.
- Challenges in involving China in future frameworks due to its arsenal position.
- Europe's potential shift towards a "Eurodeterrent."
- Increased pressure on Japan and South Korea regarding nuclear capabilities.
- India's need to engage major powers on new norms in nuclear multipolarity.
