The Iran File: Geopolitical Tensions and Negotiations
The return of the Iran file as a point of geopolitical friction highlights renewed challenges in a world perceived as more disordered than ordered.
Historical Context
- In late 2013, the Obama administration initiated negotiations with Iran to curb its nuclear program, involving the P5+1 group of countries.
- This led to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), aimed at regulating Iran's nuclear activities, which Iran claimed were for civil purposes.
- In 2018, the Trump administration exited the JCPOA, citing its inadequacies in securing American interests, leaving allies and Iran in uncertainty.
Current Developments
- By 2025, the Trump administration, during its second term, bombed Iran's nuclear and air defense sites, yet pursued diplomatic negotiations akin to Obama's approach.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu played a significant role, leveraging intelligence assessments to influence U.S. actions against Iran.
Military and Diplomatic Tensions
- Amid these tensions, the U.S. has increased its military presence in the region while negotiating with Iran, aspiring for a new agreement similar to the JCPOA.
- Regional Arab powers and global actors prefer diplomatic solutions over military escalation, mindful of Iran's capacity for retaliation.
India's Position
- India, a former supporter of the JCPOA, emphasized its benefits, like eased sanctions and oil trade resumption with Iran.
- Despite U.S. pressure limiting oil imports, Iran remains significant for India due to its political dynamics in the region, including relationships with Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Internal Dynamics in Iran
- Iran faces internal protests affecting political stability, with moderate and conservative factions uniting post-U.S. bombings.
- The outcome of these negotiations remains crucial, amid the largest U.S. military buildup in the region since 2003.
Author: Kabir Taneja, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation Middle East
