Monsoon Season Forecast

The India Meteorological Department forecasts a mostly below-normal monsoon season due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño and La Niña, which are part of the ENSO phenomenon, significantly influence global weather patterns:

• El Niño: Typically leads to reduced monsoon rainfall in India.
• La Niña: Generally strengthens the monsoon.

The ENSO effect is expected to start in June, with a significant impact anticipated in July, affecting the second half of the monsoon season. Rapid development in the Pacific may cause earlier effects.

Factors Influencing Monsoon

• Positive aspect: Below-normal Eurasian snow cover between January and March 2026 could favorably influence monsoon precipitation.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may counteract ENSO effects, expected to impact the latter half of the monsoon season.
• The Super ENSO phenomenon is expected to set in after the monsoon season ends, thus not significantly impacting India's monsoon.

Implications for India

The ENSO phenomenon, which now occurs more frequently and with increased intensity, is a warning for India to adopt better water management practices. These include:

• Conserving water owing to more erratic and intense rainfall patterns.
• Preventing soil erosion and retaining water during deluges.

Water Management Strategies

The book by Parameswaran Iyer, Arunabha Ghosh, and Richard Damania titled Water, Nature and Progress: Solutions for a New India suggests a shift towards a circular water economy. Their proposals include:

• Treating used water as a resource rather than a liability.
• Setting staggered targets for water treatment and reuse: 
  • 50% treatment capacity by 2028.
  • 100% treatment capacity by 2035.
  • 50% reuse by 2035.
• Encouraging public-private partnerships based on successful models from Surat, Thane, Taiwan, and Jordan.

Challenges and Solutions

Water scarcity in India is exacerbated by unregulated water tankers, which capitalize on the scarcity value. To address this, a dialogue between the government and citizens on water pricing and service improvement is necessary. Building state capacity for reliable water supply and infrastructure is crucial.

Conclusion

India must heed the warning of a likely below-normal monsoon by improving water management strategies. The insights shared by V Anantha Nageswaran and M Ravichandran highlight the urgent need to treat water conservation as essential for the nation's sustained development.