Monsoon Forecast and its Implications
IMD's Revised Forecast
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) revised its forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from the 92% projected in April.
- The monsoon is now expected to arrive in the first week of June, delayed from the forecasted date of May 26.
- Historically, IMD's Kerala onset forecast has been accurate since 2005, except for 2015.
Potential Drought Concerns
- The rainfall downgrade raises concerns of a drought.
- The probability of a 'deficient' monsoon is now at 60%.
- All regions except the Northeast are expected to receive below-normal rainfall.
Factors Affecting Monsoon Onset
- Monsoon had reached the Andaman Sea on time, but wind patterns have delayed its progress to Kerala.
- Mid-latitude western disturbances have influenced the monsoon flow.
Historical Patterns and El Niño
- Comparisons are drawn to 2015, a year with similar delays and deficiencies.
- The IMD indicates a 92% chance of El Niño conditions affecting the season.
- Past serious drought episodes include 2009, with monsoon onset and distribution issues.
Impact on Agriculture
- Delayed onset and dry spells can severely affect crops, especially if they last beyond a week.
- Insufficient rainfall can impact groundwater recharge, affecting both rain-fed and irrigated crops.
Preparation over fear is emphasized by Agriculture Minister to combat potential impacts of El Niño.
