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In Summary

  • New GDP Series: Base year revised to 2022-23 from 2011-12, integrating GST, e-Vahan, PFMS data.
  • Refined estimation includes double deflation, Supply-Use Tables, and improved PFCE, capturing gig economy.
  • Implications: Real GDP growth at 7.6% (FY25-26), but nominal GDP revised down; fiscal deficit and debt-to-GDP ratios increase.

In Summary

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the New Series of Annual and Quarterly National Accounts Estimates (including the GDP).

Key changes in the New GDP Series

  • New Base Year: 2022-23 (earlier 2011-12).
    • FY 2022–23 was selected as the most recent "normal" period following the COVID-19 disruptions of 2019–2021.
  • New Data Sources: Now integrates high-frequency and administrative data, including GST collections, the e-Vahan portal, and the Public Financial Management System (PFMS).
  • Refined Deflation Techniques: Double deflation (discounting input price as well, along with output price) is now applied in manufacturing and agriculture, discontinuing the use of Single deflation
  • Integration of Supply and Use Tables (SUT): The SUT framework has been aligned with National accounts to reduce discrepancies between production- and expenditure-based GDP estimates.
  • Improved Estimation of Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE): By integrating direct estimation from production, administrative data, and the commodity flow approach.
  • General Government Adjustments: Government estimates now account for the rollout of the National Pension System (NPS) alongside the Old Pension Scheme (OPS).
  • Other: Inclusion of
    • Hired domestic workers capturing digital, platform and gig economy activities in the Revised GDP Series; 
    • Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) and the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) to better measure the household and informal sectors.

Why GDP base year been revised?

  • Structural Shifts: The new base captures the expansion of digital services, renewable energy, and evolving consumption patterns over the last decade.
  • International best practices: Periodic revisions support alignment with international best practices recommended by the UN Statistical Commission.

Implications

  • Decrease in GDP Size: While the real growth rate has increased to 7.6% (FY 2025–26), the nominal size of the economy has been revised downward by roughly 3.3% to 3.8% (₹345.47 lakh crore for FY 2025–26)  for the years spanning 2023-26 compared to earlier estimates. 
  • Higher Fiscal Deficit: The lower GDP base pushes the FY 2025-26 revised fiscal deficit estimate up from 4.36% to 4.51% of GDP.
  • Higher Debt-to-GDP: for FY 2026-27 is now pegged at 57.5% (against a budgeted target of 55.6%), complicating the government's target of bringing central debt down to 50% by 2031.
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Debt-to-GDP ratio

A key fiscal indicator representing a country's total debt as a percentage of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A lower ratio generally signifies better fiscal health and a country's ability to repay its debts.

Fiscal Deficit

The difference between the government's total expenditure and its total revenue (excluding borrowings). A rising fiscal deficit indicates that the government is spending more than it earns, which can lead to increased debt and potential economic instability.

Real GDP

Real GDP adjusts Gross Domestic Product for inflation. It is calculated using constant prices from a base year, providing a more accurate measure of the actual volume of goods and services produced and indicating economic growth.

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