Russian President’s recent China visit highlighted Russia’s growing dependence on China, with both sides signing 40+ agreements and reaffirming support for a multipolar world order against Western dominance.
Reasons for the Increasing Russia-China Nexus
- Shared Geopolitical Rivalry: Both view US-led order as a threat to their core interests.
- Economic Complementarity: Western sanctions increased Russia’s dependence on China.
- De-dollarisation & Alternative Institutions: Growing trade in Yuan and Ruble. Use of BRICS and SCO to promote a non-Western Eurasian security architecture.
Implications on India
- Erosion of Russia as a Strategic Balancer: Russia’s growing dependence on China weaken its neutrality in India-China tensions.
- Defence Vulnerabilities: India’s reliance on Russian arms faces risks due to delays in supplies (e.g., S-400, stealth frigates) and transfer of advanced platforms to China affects India’s security.
- Emerging Russia–China–Pakistan Convergence: E.g., Russia is expanding ties with Pakistan through arms sales, discounted oil exports, etc.
- Challenges in Multilateral Forums: E.g., Cooperation between Russia and China in Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
- Pressure on India’s Strategic Autonomy: Russia-China proximity and uncertain US policies constrain India’s multi-alignment strategy.
