India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.9, according to the recently released Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024.

What is the Total Fertility Rate?

• It refers to the average number of children a woman would have over the end of her reproductive period (15-59 years).
• Replacement Level Fertility: A TFR of about 2.1 children per woman is considered the replacement level, where each generation has enough children to replace itself, resulting in a stable population over time. 
  • A TFR higher than 2.1 indicates a growing population, while a TFR below 2.1 generally indicates a shrinking and aging population.
• High-TFR States: Bihar (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.6), Madhya Pradesh (2.4)
• Low-TFR States/UTs: Delhi (1.2), Kerala (1.3), Tamil Nadu (1.3).
• Reasons for Declining TFR in India: Increased women's education, Family Planning Initiative, delayed marriage, etc.

Implications of Declining Fertility Rate

• Positive Impacts
  • Resource Conservation: Lower fertility reduces pressure on land, water, and other natural resources, supporting environmental sustainability.
  • Educational Efficiency: Fewer children can improve educational outcomes by increasing per-child resource availability without additional public spending.
• Negative Impacts
  • Higher Dependency Ratio: Sustained low fertility increases the share of elderly people relative to the working-age population.
  • Labour Shortages: A shrinking workforce may reduce productivity, economic growth, and labour market stability. E.g., Korea, Japan, etc.
  • Migration Pressures: Ageing societies may rely more on immigration to fill workforce gaps.