In its Annual Economic Report 2026, BIS names AI as one of four pressure points facing the global economy.
- Financial vulnerabilities and strained public finances are among pressure points facing the global economy, along with the return of inflation.
Impact of AI Investments on Global Economy
- Macroeconomic Impact
- Supply Chain Spillovers: E.g., Massive capital expenditures (capex) on US AI infrastructure boosted Asian exports due to high global demand for semiconductors.
- Inflation: Fast-growing demand for computing power is already pressuring electricity prices, with potential spillovers to inflation.
- Private credit concentration: Investment boom exposes credit markets to severe risks if the AI sector falters.
- E.g., five largest "hyperscalers" are projected to spend over $1 trillion on AI-related capex between 2025 and 2026.
- Labor Market and Productivity Dynamics
- Efficiency gains: Studies report massive efficiency gains from AI, often saving workers between 20% and 50% in time.
- Demand bottleneck: Increasing automation diverts income from labour, which is spent on goods and services, into further AI investment, eroding the consumer base.
- Cybersecurity Threats: Frontier AI models are lowering the costs and accelerating the pace of cyberattacks, which poses a direct threat to the resilience of the broader financial system.
About Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
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