Overview of India’s Agricultural Trade

India's agriculture exports have seen a 6.5% increase, rising from $35.2 billion in April-December 2023 to $37.5 billion in April-December 2024. This growth surpasses the overall 1.9% increase in the country's merchandise exports for the same period. However, the agriculture trade surplus has reduced from $10.6 billion to $8.2 billion in the corresponding time frame.

Trends in Agricultural Trade Surplus

• India remains a net exporter of agricultural goods, but the trade surplus has significantly decreased from $27.7 billion in 2013-14 to $8.1 billion in 2016-17. It rose to $20.2 billion in 2020-21 before dropping to $16 billion in 2023-24.
• The narrowing surplus is attributed to a decrease in exports and an increase in imports, influenced by international commodity prices and domestic policies.

Factors Affecting Exports

• Marine products, India's top export, fell from $8.1 billion in 2022-23 to $7.4 billion in 2023-24, influenced by global tariffs.
• Sugar exports decreased significantly due to domestic restrictions, while rice and basmati exports maintained high levels.
• Natural calamities in other countries have bolstered exports of products like coffee and tobacco from India.

Insights into Imports

• Pulses and edible oils dominate imports. A poor crop in 2023-24 has led to a rise in pulse imports, potentially surpassing $5 billion.
• Edible oil imports are projected to be high, following the Ukraine war which raised global prices.
• India has become a net importer of cotton due to increased imports and declining exports.
• Despite being a major exporter of certain spices, India imports more pepper and cardamom than it exports.

Conclusion

India's agricultural trade dynamics are influenced by global price trends and domestic policies, with a noticeable shift from a surplus towards higher imports in certain commodities.