Early Summer and Extreme Heatwaves in India
The onset of summer has been exceptionally early and intense, with Goa and Maharashtra experiencing the year's first heatwave by the end of February. February 2023 was recorded as the hottest in 125 years by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), with March showing no improvement.
Impact on Environment and Resources
- Temperature Deviations: March temperatures deviated by as much as 3° C from the norm.
- Water Resources: Major rivers, such as the Yamuna in Delhi, are drying up, exacerbating water stress.
Economic and Health Consequences
- Labour and Economy:
- The International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates a 5.8% loss of total labour hours by 2030 due to heat and humidity.
- The World Bank projects India could account for 34 million of the 80 million global job losses due to heat stress.
- Approximately 4.5% of GDP could be at risk due to lost labour from rising heat alone.
- Agricultural Impact:
- Heatwaves in 2022 reduced wheat yields by 15-20% and milk production by 15%.
- Such disruptions could lead to inflationary pressures, hindering economic progress.
Challenges in Adaptation and Mitigation
- Water Stress: With shrinking rivers and depleting groundwater, water stress is expected to intensify.
- Urban and Industrial Impact: Infrastructure and public health are under strain from the heat.
- Heat Action Plans (HAPs): Developed by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) since 2023, these plans face challenges:
- Lack of local context and insufficient funding.
- Poor targeting of vulnerable groups.
- Inadequate integration with broader climate adaptation efforts.
Policy and Investment Imperatives
Heat risk must be integrated into all policies, programs, and investment decisions. Building resilience to rising temperatures is essential for protecting livelihoods, sustaining economic growth, and securing a healthier future.