Mitra-bhedam and Strategic Alliances

The concept of Mitra-bhedam, derived from the ancient Indian text Panchatantra, emphasizes the strategy of separating one's adversary from their allies. Moscow and Beijing have been attempting this with the US and its allies in Eurasia, although with limited success until recent times.

US Alliances and Current Challenges

• The US has long relied on alliances in Europe and Asia as force multipliers of its global power.
• Critics argue that President Donald Trump's policies have strained these alliances, benefiting Russia and China.
• Trump’s derogation of US military allies as “free riders” and his economic policies, such as the tariff war, have threatened these alliances.

European and Asian Reactions

The US's strained relations have manifested differently across Europe and Asia:

• Europe:
  • Putin sees a chance to improve relations with the US, potentially at the cost of its European alliances.
  • China is enticing Europe to form a coalition against the US on trade, with President Xi Jinping advocating for globalization and opposing US unilateralism.
  • While Europe considers pivoting towards China, US Treasury warns against it, highlighting economic risks.
• Asia:
  • China is intensifying diplomatic efforts in Asia, engaging with countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia.
  • Efforts include improving ties with Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India.
  • China aims to counteract the US's Indo-Pacific strategies by fortifying regional ties.

China's Economic Engagement

• Southeast Asia:
  • China claims openness to neighboring markets, but trade imbalances persist, with Vietnam and ASEAN facing significant trade deficits with China.
• Global Economic Dynamics:
  • Despite criticism from the US, Asian countries prioritize maintaining their US market access.
  • Countries like Vietnam and ASEAN have trade surpluses with the US, making US trade relations crucial.

Conclusion

China is working towards being an alternative to the US as a leader in globalized economic order. However, Asian economic partners are still leaning towards the US for trade agreements, highlighting the ongoing struggle for influence in the region. For China’s vision to materialize, greater openness to imports is necessary to rebalance global economic ties.