India's Diplomatic Response to the Pahalgam Terrorist Attack

Following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22, India has adopted several 'non-kinetic' measures in its diplomatic response to Pakistan.

Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)

• India has put the IWT signed in 1960 in abeyance, affecting critical water and flood-related information sharing with Pakistan.
• This move could impact Pakistan's water management and agricultural plans, particularly during lean months when water levels are low.
• India's potential to tweak water flow marginally could affect Pakistan’s agricultural output, especially in major crops like paddy, cotton, and maize.

Economic Measures Against Pakistan

• India has banned imports from Pakistan and closed ports to Pakistan-owned ships.
• India plans to raise concerns at the IMF regarding Pakistan's $1.3 billion loan tranche.
• India aims to influence global entities like the World Bank and FATF to reconsider their engagements with Pakistan, including possibly putting Pakistan back on the FATF 'grey list'.

Potential Additional Measures

Experts suggest India could further pressure its allies in West Asia, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to withdraw their financial support to Pakistan.

Parliamentary Committee on Defence

• The committee has focused on preparedness of the Armed Forces in hybrid warfare, including cyber, kinetic, and non-kinetic warfare.
• This approach signifies a shift in technology used in modern warfare involving drones, space, and cyberspace.

Impact on Pakistan's Agriculture and Economy

• Pakistan's agriculture sector, heavily reliant on water-intensive crops, could suffer due to changes in water flow from India.
• Pakistan exports significant quantities of rice, with current stocks at 3.8 million tonnes. Water scarcity might affect future exports.
• Livestock, contributing 40-45% of Pakistan's agriculture GDP, could be impacted by reduced paddy and maize production affecting animal feed supplies.
• Wheat stocks are estimated at 2.1 million tonnes, with production predictions suggesting a drop to 27 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season.

Geopolitical Implications

• Former diplomats suggest India's measures are strategic, aiming to deter Pakistan and leverage diplomatic influence.
• Pakistan's strategic planners have long feared India's control over water resources, making the IWT suspension significant.
• China's continued military support to Pakistan is noted, complicating the geopolitical dynamics.