Current Wheat and Rice Stock Situation

Wheat Stock Analysis

A favorable wheat stock scenario has been observed, creating a so-called Goldilocks situation, where the conditions are "just right" for farmers, traders, and the government.

• On April 1, government wheat stocks were at 7.5 million tonnes (mt), the lowest since 2008.
• Wholesale wheat prices in Delhi rose significantly to Rs 3,200 per quintal this January, compared to Rs 2,500 a year earlier.
• Open market sales of wheat from public stocks were over 10 mt during 2023-24, decreasing to just over 4 mt in 2024-25.
• The government strategy to conserve wheat stocks and let prices rise proved effective, with public stocks reaching 11.8 mt by this April.
• The new wheat crop is abundant, with government agencies set to procure over 30 mt, the highest in four years.
• Wheat prices in Delhi eased to Rs 2,450-2,500 per quintal, indicating robust market arrivals.
• Farmers received a fair reward for wheat, with the government's minimum support price (MSP) at Rs 2,425 per quintal.

Factors Contributing to Wheat Success

• Increased acreage for wheat cultivation due to good prices and higher MSP with additional bonuses in states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
• Favorable weather conditions with adequate soil moisture and irrigation water availability.

Rice Stock Situation

Rice stocks present a contrasting scenario to wheat, with an oversupply issue.

• Government rice stocks on April 1 were 63.1 mt, over four times the required amount of 13.6 mt.
• India is structurally surplus in rice, grown across almost all regions, making it a water-intensive crop.

Policy Recommendations

• There is a need to limit rice cultivation and shift acreage to less water-intensive crops like maize, oilseeds, and pulses.
• Concrete policy actions are needed to address this imbalance without further delay.