India's Kinetic Strikes and Their Strategic Implications

The Indian armed forces conducted kinetic strikes, targeting areas in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK) and deeper within Pakistan. These actions aimed to address two primary objectives within the broader India-Pakistan dynamics.

Objectives of the Strikes

• Retribution: The strikes served as a response to the brutal killing of 26 tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir. This act was intended to assure the public and political entities that India would respond to such acts with a decisive stance. 
• Conventional Deterrence: Beyond immediate retribution, India sought to re-establish its conventional deterrence against Pakistan, especially in light of the evolving military doctrines and alliances in the region. 

Contextual Factors

• Cross-Border Terrorism: The term coined by India's security establishment has been criticized for underplaying the severity of such acts, which should be viewed as "acts of war." 
• Mutual Nuclear Deterrence: While nuclear deterrence has been effective for over two decades, India's conventional superiority faced challenges due to: 
  • The emergence of the China-Pakistan axis.
  • Pakistan's deployment of tactical nuclear weapons and adoption of a "flexible response" strategy.

Challenges and Responses

Despite India's attempts to deter Pakistan through surgical strikes post-Uri and Pulwama, infiltration and terrorist activities across the Line of Control (LoC) persisted. The Indian military has faced challenges in countering small, mobile terrorist units operating under Pakistan's military cover.

The Role of Pakistan's Deep State

To effectively counter asymmetric warfare, India must target the Pakistani "deep state" — a coalition of the military's General Headquarters and the Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI). This entity controls Pakistan's policies and the political landscape.

Strategic Considerations

• Kinetic Strikes: While effective, they must be part of a broader strategy that includes preparing the public for potential escalation and losses. 
• Non-Escalatory Intent: India has signaled its intent to avoid escalation by employing aircraft-launched weapons and targeting terrorist hubs rather than military installations. 
• International Communication: It's crucial to convey India's limited objectives — dismantling terror networks and halting cross-border activities. 

Nuclear Implications

Any nuclear escalation would have severe regional and global consequences. Therefore, it's believed that Pakistan's military leaders would avoid provoking a nuclear response from India.

Conclusion

India must remain vigilant against attempts by Pakistan to exploit internal divisions. The strategic focus should be on preventing India from becoming destabilized and ensuring national integrity against external and internal threats.