Impact of Cyclones and Climate Change
Cyclones rank among the most powerful natural phenomena, and their destructive potential is escalating due to climate change. A study by ETH Zurich suggests that if global warming follows the SSP5-8.5 scenario, cyclones could become more intense and impact previously unaffected regions.
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
- SSP3: Politically fragmented world with low environmental protection priority.
- SSP5: Rapid fossil fuel consumption and resource depletion.
- SSP5-8.5: Combines SSP5 with a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2.
Research Findings
The studies utilized the CLIMADA risk modelling platform for analyzing past and projected cyclone patterns, categorizing ecoregions by resilience and vulnerability, and assessing the ecosystem risk under climate change.
- Ecoregions Classification:
- Resilient
- Dependent
- Vulnerable
- Cyclone Intensity Categories: Low, medium, and high wind speeds.
- Affected Ecoregions:
- 290 currently affected, 200 more vulnerable, 26 resilient.
Mangroves at Risk
- By 2100, up to 56% of global mangrove areas could face high to severe risk under SSP5-8.5.
- Southeast Asia could see 52-78% of mangroves at risk.
- Even under SSP3-7.0, 97-98% of Southeast Asia's protective mangroves could be at high to severe risk.
Shift in Tropical Cyclone Belts
The cyclone belts might move away from the equator, bringing new cyclone activity to higher latitudes, exposing unadapted ecosystems to cyclone threats.
Recommendations and Warnings
The study suggests incorporating long-term recovery time in risk assessments and emphasizes the need for risk-sensitive conservation planning. Kropf warns of underestimating the scale of the coming changes in cyclone patterns.
