France's Consideration of Nuclear Weapons Stationing in Europe

Recent developments indicate that French President Emmanuel Macron is open to discussing the stationing of France's nuclear weapons in other European countries. This move aligns with France's policy of "European strategic autonomy" amidst heightened security concerns due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

European Strategic Autonomy

• Objective: To enhance the EU’s capacity to act independently in security and defense matters.
• Context: U.S. President Donald Trump questioned the unconditional U.S. security guarantees to NATO allies, linking support to the 2% GDP defense spending target.

Historical Context of France's Nuclear Deterrence

• Traditional Stance: France has historically viewed its nuclear deterrent as a strictly national tool.
• Strategic Shift: Openness to "nuclear sharing" signifies an evolution in strategic thinking.

Nuclear Sharing within NATO

• Definition: Involves a nuclear-weapon state stationing nuclear weapons on allied non-nuclear-weapon states’ territory.
• Current U.S. Arrangement: U.S. B61 tactical nuclear gravity bombs are deployed in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkiye.
• Control: The U.S. retains legal ownership and custody of the warheads and the decision to use them remains with the U.S. President following NATO consultation.

Challenges and Implications

• Logistical and Doctrinal Challenges: Extending France’s nuclear deterrent would require enhancing its current arsenal and deploying French Air Force units abroad.
• Security Considerations:
  • Proponents argue it could strengthen deterrence against Russia.
  • Conversely, Russia might perceive it as a significant escalation.

Legal Framework

• Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT):
  • Article I prohibits nuclear-weapon states from transferring nuclear weapons or control over them.
  • Current NATO nuclear sharing is justified as NPT-compliant since no legal ownership is transferred in peacetime.
• Non-Proliferation Advocacy: Various institutions challenge the legality of current sharing arrangements.