Attacks on Iran's Nuclear Sites
The United States and Israel have conducted unprecedented attacks on Iran's operational nuclear facilities. This has raised several global concerns, including the potential for radiation leaks.
Concerns Post-Attack
- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Iran report no immediate rise in radiation levels.
- Uncertainty surrounds the security and location of nuclear materials from the attacked sites: Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow.
- Possible disruption of IAEA's access to these sites, which is crucial for global monitoring and information gathering.
Assessing Radiation Risk
Radiation levels at nuclear facilities are monitored in real-time, with data often shared with the IAEA. Iran is committed to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and must comply with IAEA safeguards, including radiation monitoring.
- Gamma rays from radiation can be detected over long distances, potentially even by satellites.
- The IAEA quickly confirmed no radiation increase post-attacks, thanks to on-site monitoring equipment.
Damage Assessment
Ongoing evaluations are hindered by the underground nature of most facilities:
- Fordow and Natanz primarily operate underground, complicating damage assessment.
- IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi noted damage at Natanz's enrichment plant and observed craters at Fordow, though detailed underground assessments are pending.
- Isfahan's site, including uranium conversion facilities, shows visible damage.
Accounting for Nuclear Material
This remains a critical concern. The IAEA relies on country reports to track nuclear materials globally:
- As an NPT signatory under scrutiny, Iran must report its nuclear material status to the IAEA.
- Iran possesses 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, close to weapons-grade.
- Pre-emptive actions by Iran reportedly moved sensitive materials to undisclosed locations, supported by satellite images showing vehicle movement at Fordow before attacks.
- Absence of radiation leaks supports Iran's claim of moving materials.
The attacks complicate IAEA efforts to verify and inspect remaining nuclear materials, posing potential risks of unaccounted usage or proliferation.