India's Geopolitical Challenges in South Asia

China-Pakistan-Bangladesh Trilateral Meeting

Recently, China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh held a trilateral meeting in Kunming, China, to discuss enhancing cooperation and engagement. This meeting follows a similar trilateral between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, aiming to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and strengthen regional ties.

China's Regional Strategy

• China is working to make Pakistan a significant regional stakeholder and divert India's focus towards immediate concerns.
• Since the 1962 India-China war, China has aligned with Pakistan to keep India engaged in regional threats, using Pakistan as an ally for economic and military support against India.

Pakistan's Dependence on China

• By the end of 2024, Pakistan had a loan of over $29 billion from China.
• About 80% of Pakistan’s arms imports are from China.
• China has protected Pakistan-backed terrorists at international platforms like the United Nations Security Council.

Recent Military and Diplomatic Escalations

The camaraderie between China and Pakistan was evident during India's Operation Sindoor in May 2025, where China criticized India's response to the Pakistan-sponsored attack in Pahalgam.

• Pakistan used Chinese hardware in the conflict.
• The trilateral meeting with Afghanistan likely emerged from discussions post-Operation Sindoor.

Historical Context and Past Strategies

Historically, Pakistan has attempted to use regional players like East Pakistan, China, and Nepal to challenge India strategically, particularly in the Siliguri Corridor.

India's Strategic Response

• India has responded to Pakistan-sponsored terror attacks with strong military and diplomatic measures.
• Actions included suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, halting trade, and targeting military installations.
• India has isolated Pakistan economically and diplomatically, showcasing the limitations of Pakistan's military strategy.

Regional Dynamics and China's Influence

• India has improved ties with South Asian countries like Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, which have shown reluctance towards China’s influence.
• China continues to push for trilateral engagements to counter India's presence and influence.

Conclusion: Balancing Regional Power

The developments reflect that China, not Pakistan, poses the primary challenge to India’s regional dominance. As China uses its influence to create new complexities, India must maintain clear policies and communicate redlines to its neighbors to manage potential threats effectively.