Geopolitical Turmoil in Eurasia
Eurasia is currently experiencing significant unrest due to three major conflicts: the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel’s operations in Gaza, and the Israel-Iran-US conflict. These wars are not only causing physical destruction but are also reshaping international relations and geopolitics in the region.
Global Power Dynamics
Beyond Eurasia, US President Donald Trump's policies have led to drift and disorder in the Western world, indicating a decline in the influence of the US and Western Europe, traditional powerhouses of the last century. Concurrently, China’s rise as a dominant economic and technological superpower is reshaping the global order.
Challenges for India
India faces challenges in adapting to the emerging global order as it has built its institutions based on the old world order. This requires a reevaluation of its geostrategic priorities.
India’s Global Engagements
- Partnerships: India has developed partnerships with Europe and the Middle East, notably with countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
- India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC): This initiative, signed in September 2023, aims to connect South Asia with the GCC region and Europe. However, it faces challenges due to the current geopolitical instability in Eurasia.
IMEC's Challenges and Opportunities
- Positioning: IMEC is often compared to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which might be a flawed approach as most GCC countries and several EU members have strong trade ties with China.
- Logistical Challenges: The route involves complex logistics, bypassing the Suez Canal, requiring substantial rail infrastructure, and dealing with countries not yet part of the initiative, like Jordan and Egypt.
- Economic Potential: Despite challenges, IMEC offers an opportunity to tap into the $18 trillion EU economy, although competition from China is significant, particularly in manufactured goods.
Historical Context and Lessons
India has a history of ambitious projects. For instance, the North-South corridor project initiated in 2000, did not materialize for India, while China forged strong ties with Russia and Iran. Similarly, the Look East policy evolved into the Act East policy under PM Modi, yet India's engagement with ASEAN remains limited compared to China.
Strategic Recommendations for India
India needs to reconfigure its global engagements, moving beyond traditional romanticism and Cold War calculations. Adopting a multidirectional approach with specific end goals will be critical for India's geostrategic objectives, especially in regions like Eastern and Central Europe, Russia, and ASEAN.