India's Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy

India is set to announce its first nationwide long-term, low-carbon development strategy, aiming for zero emissions by 2070. This plan is crucial as major emitters like China, Europe, and the US already have similar strategies.

Emission Mitigation Plan and Carbon Budget

• The mitigation plan spans from 2040 to 2070, with official numbers released by a NITI Aayog committee offering scenarios for transitioning to net zero.
• A national carbon budget is essential for achieving net zero but may increase costs for companies transitioning to low-emission strategies.
• It emphasizes that a carbon budget could drive economic growth by providing long-term signals to industries and investors.
• A carbon budget would help allocate carbon resources effectively across states and sectors, enhancing credibility in achieving net zero.

Current Emission Situation

• India's carbon dioxide emission from energy production increased by over 4% in 2024, contributing 8.3% to global emissions.
• Despite emitting less than China (11 billion tons) and the US (4.6 billion tons), India's emissions are growing faster than China's 1.2% and the US's decline of 0.8%.
• India relies heavily on fossil fuels for growth, though per capita and per GDP emissions remain low.

Potential Benefits of a Carbon Budget

• A carbon budget would align policy certainty with investment decisions, unlike the current disjointed strategies.
• India's primary energy consumption growth is 4.6%, heavily reliant on coal.
• Existing measures like the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) and Renewable Energy Certificates lack a cohesive national plan.
• India requires a calibrated carbon budget to support development while reducing emissions progressively.

Disjointed Strategies and Future Direction

• Energy-related carbon emissions increased by around 1% in 2024, reaching 40.8 GtCO₂e.
• Current policies are seen as haphazard, with no comprehensive national carbon budget.
• The Energy and Resources Institute stresses the need for a balanced carbon budget to prevent long-term high-carbon infrastructure lock-ins.
• The Ministry of Environment is developing a short-term climate strategy to present Nationally Determined Contributions to the UNFCCC.