Israel's Recognition of Somaliland

Israel's recent recognition of Somaliland as an independent state signifies a significant shift in the "rules-based international order" (RBIO). This move reflects a broader trend where global norms and territorial integrity are challenged, emphasizing that territorial sovereignty must be actively maintained.

International Reactions and Implications

• Israel's decision is based on pragmatic considerations, as Somaliland offers strategic benefits due to its geographical location at the Red Sea's entrance.
• Reactions to Israel's decision are fragmented: 
  • Many Arab states have denounced it, but countries like the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco show ambivalence due to strategic interests.
  • African nations criticized the violation of Somali sovereignty, yet Ethiopia has remained silent due to its interests in gaining maritime access.
• The decision reflects the diminishing power of the RBIO, initially popularized by Japan to counter China's expansion in the Indo-Pacific.
• The sovereignty issue is not limited to Somaliland; it is a global phenomenon with examples like Ukraine facing territorial pressures in Europe.

India's Position and Challenges

• India faces a diplomatic balancing act, maintaining relationships with Israel and Ethiopia while considering its partnerships with the African Union and Middle Eastern countries.
• India's interests in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa are significant due to historical trade, finance, and defense networks linking it to British India.
• India must confront the challenge of maintaining territorial sovereignty and regional leadership amidst global power shifts.

Broader Implications for Sovereignty

• With powerful nations engaging in territorial revisionism, lesser states cannot rely on the RBIO's presumed protective shield or Global South solidarity.
• Organizations like ASEAN, the Arab League, and BRICS face internal divisions and challenges in defending against external aggressions.
• The episode highlights a deeper crisis of sovereignty where borders are contested through economic, infrastructural, and digital means.

Strategic Priorities for India

• Strengthening Internal Political Coherence: Societies must be unified to resist external manipulation and internal breakdown.
• Credible Deterrence: Sovereignty must be supported by military capacity and political will to impose costs on violators.
• Regional Leadership: India must promote South Asian peace and stability; otherwise, external powers like the US and China will exploit regional conflicts.

In conclusion, the recognition of Somaliland underscores the evolving nature of global politics and the necessity for nations, including India, to adapt to these changes by reinforcing internal and external strategies.