Geopolitical Dynamics After Israel Recognizes Somaliland

Israel's recognition of Somaliland as an independent state in December 2025 marks a significant geopolitical shift in the Horn of Africa. This decision brings potential risks, including heightened Cold War-style proxy conflicts, increased militarization, and economic-political coercion, especially affecting the strategic Red Sea corridor.

China's Strategic Dilemmas

• Somaliland's significance to China: 
  • Intersects with China's core interests: safeguarding the "One China" policy, securing Red Sea maritime routes, and managing the great-power competition in Africa.
  • Stability and functioning institutions in Somaliland challenge China's rigid sovereignty doctrine, paralleling its concerns over Taiwan.
• The Taiwan Factor: 
  • Somaliland's ties with Taipei directly challenge China's "One China" principle.
  • Heightened cooperation between Somaliland and Taiwan increases China's concerns.

Strategic and Economic Concerns

• Bab el-Mandeb Strait: 
  • A critical maritime choke point for Chinese trade and energy, termed as a "jugular vein" for global commerce.
  • China's first overseas military base in Djibouti underscores its strategic interests in the region.
• Potential for New Alliances: 
  • Somaliland could become an alternative security hub, backed by Israel, UAE, and possibly the U.S.
  • This scenario threatens to dilute China's regional influence.

China's Strategic Responses

• Diplomatic and Economic Measures: 
  • Utilizing UN Security Council position to block Somaliland's broader recognition.
  • Possible hybrid warfare tactics, including economic coercion and information campaigns.
• Palestinian Stance: 
  • Aligning with pro-Palestinian sentiment to oppose Israel's action and resonate with Global South audiences.

Geopolitical Implications and Future Steps

• Growing international interest in Somaliland, including Ethiopia's recognition in exchange for port access and US congressional support.
• China's challenge extends beyond blocking Somaliland's recognition to countering increased Taiwanese visibility and Western influence.

Israel's recognition of Somaliland has shifted it from a diplomatic footnote to a focal point in global geopolitical strategies, challenging China's sovereignty and influence in the region.