Lancet’s ‘Global Burden of Disease’ Study Finds Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Decline Across the World Since 1950 | Current Affairs | Vision IAS
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  • Key Findings 
    • Global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (1950) to 2·23 (2021).
    • Expected global TFR is 1·83 in 2050 and 1·59 in 2100.
    • In 47 countries fertility was below replacement rate from 1950 to 2021.  
    • India’s TFR was 6.8 in 1950, 1.91 in 2021, and is projected to fall to 1.29 and 1.04 in 2050 and 2100, respectively

 

  • Reasons: Improving access to modern contraceptives and female education are two primary drivers of declining fertility.

 

  • Impact of Low Levels of Fertility 
    • Changes in age structure, caused by a growing elderly population, and shrinking working-age population, and a labor force.
    • May increase burden on health care and social systems. 
    • Smaller future population could alleviate strain on global food systems, environments, and other finite resources.
    • Low TFR improves women’s decision-making power in the household. 

 

  • Policy suggestions
    • Implement pro-natal policies, such as child-related cash transfers and tax incentives, etc.
    • Access to modern contraceptives and rapidly expanding access to female education
    • Investment in social security programmes, and health-care infrastructure.

 

  • Replacement rate is minimum rate necessary for generational replacement of population assuming no migration. 
  • The replacement level is generally accepted to be a Total fertility rate (TFR) of at least 2·1
  • TFR represents average number of children a woman would have in her childbearing years (usually considered 15-49).
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