Dissecting Donald Trump's Leadership and Global Impact

Donald Trump is a unique and polarizing figure in American politics, known for his bold, outspoken style and focus on deal-making. His leadership and approach significantly differ from his predecessors, being defined by his real estate background and coercive politics. He presents himself as a populist, standing against an established political order, often engaging in controversy and showcasing resilience.

Trump's Approach to International Order

During his first Presidency, Trump emphasized an "America First" doctrine. His approach included:

• Multilateralism: He was critical of multilateral agreements he deemed unfavorable to the U.S., preferring bilateral agreements.
• International Institutions: Trump expressed skepticism about organizations like the United Nations and NATO, suggesting they benefit other nations at America's expense.
• Global Governance: He prioritized American sovereignty, often using strong personal branding and unconventional deal-making tactics.

Impact on Global Geopolitics

Trump's leadership could lead to significant changes in global geopolitics, such as:

• Protectionism: An increase in protectionism, tariffs, and trade wars, leading to economic uncertainty.
• China-U.S. Dynamics: Intensified competition with China, affecting global stability, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Global Institutions: His skepticism could inspire adventurism in global politics and nationalism overriding international law.

Implications for India-U.S. Relations

The strategic outlook for India-U.S. relations under a potential second Trump Presidency is mixed, but certain trends are expected to continue:

• Strategic Partnership: India emphasizes constructive engagement with the U.S., with a mutual interest in countering China.
• Defense and Technology: Continued strengthening in defense cooperation and partnerships in critical technologies, though trade frictions could be a complicating factor.
• Quad Grouping: Strengthened ties within the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) to maintain balance in the Indo-Pacific.

India's Strategic Priorities

India's strategic outlook focuses on maintaining a stable regional and international environment:

• Economic Growth: Essential for strategic outlook; includes energy security, diversification of energy sources, and renewable energy development.
• Regional Stability: Peace and stability in South Asia, vigilance against destabilizing influences from China and Pakistan.
• Security Partnerships: Partnerships with countries like Japan, Australia, EU, and ASEAN to counterbalance China's rise.
• Technological Advancements: Emphasizing digital transformation, AI, cybersecurity, and space exploration.
• Soft Power Deployment: Focus on democratic values, pluralism, and humanitarian engagement.
• Russia Relations: Continuing a strategic partnership with Russia as a counterweight to Sino-Russian alignment.

In conclusion, the possibility of a second Trump Presidency may disrupt established patterns of history and geopolitics, leading to a more polarised and unstable global order. This aligns with Ian Bremmer's concept of a "G-Zero" world where established global norms are challenged.