Overview of Recent Terror Attacks and Responses
The recent terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir, believed to be sponsored by Pakistan, has reignited familiar responses: condemnation within India, promises of justice, and global sympathy. Despite over 40 years of experiencing Pakistani terrorism and various peace initiatives, a resolution seems elusive. The recent increase in tensions was anticipated, as Pakistan's internal issues and international pressure may have temporarily restrained its activities.
India's Countermeasures
- Following the attack, India has taken several measures:
- Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, impacting Pakistan's water security.
- Closing the Integrated Check Post at Attari.
- Scrapping the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme for Pakistani nationals.
- Suspending visa services for Pakistani nationals.
- Reducing diplomatic staff in the respective high commissions.
While most actions are symbolic, the halt of the Indus Waters Treaty poses a significant threat to Pakistan, a water-stressed nation. However, without infrastructure to divert or store water, the immediate impact is limited.
Pakistan's Reactions
In retaliation, Pakistan has:
- Closed its airspace to Indian aircraft.
- Stopped Afghan exports to India through its territory.
- Threatened to suspend bilateral agreements, including the Simla Agreement.
Pakistan views any Indian attempt to redirect water as an act of war, raising nuclear tensions.
Potential for Escalation
The situation remains tense with potential for further violence. The public sentiment in India may demand a strong response. Any action by India could provoke a Pakistani reaction, increasing the risk of escalation. Historically, post-Balakot, both nations managed to de-escalate, but maintaining this is challenging.
Impact on India-Pakistan Relations
The ongoing standoff might redefine bilateral relations. India's unity and restraint, avoiding jingoism, are seen as appropriate responses to religiously motivated violence. Diplomatic efforts have waned, leaving deterrence and coercion as the primary tools in managing relations. However, without a change in Pakistan's behavior, coercion alone may not suffice, leading to a volatile and potentially violent environment.
In summary, while security forces strive to mitigate threats, absolute security remains unattainable. The relationship between India and Pakistan is complex and uncertain, with current strategies focused more on retaliation than resolution.