Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a longstanding agreement between India and Pakistan, has been suspended by India in response to suspected Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attacks. This treaty has been pivotal in maintaining water cooperation despite various geopolitical tensions.

Geopolitical Implications of the Suspension

• The suspension alters the dynamics between India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed neighbors.
• India's unique position as an upper riparian country for the Indus and a lower riparian for the Brahmaputra affects its geopolitical strategies.

Details of the Indus Waters Treaty

• Pakistan controls 80% of the waters from the western rivers (Indus, Chenab, Jhelum).
• India is allocated the eastern tributaries (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej).
• India can undertake run-of-river projects and limited storage on western rivers.
• 80% of Pakistan's agriculture relies on these waters, making it vital for its economy.

Potential Consequences of the Suspension

• India lacks the infrastructure to stop water flow during high-flow periods.
• The suspension permits India to build storage infrastructure without notifying Pakistan.
• Hydrological data sharing with Pakistan will cease, impacting flood forecasting and water management.
• Pakistan may consider water flow stoppage as an act of war, risking regional stability.

Broader Regional Impact

• The suspension could impact future water treaties, like the Teesta water treaty with Bangladesh.
• China's role as the upper riparian on the Brahmaputra poses a significant concern.
• China's plans for a major hydropower project on the Brahmaputra could affect India’s negotiations.

The long-term implications of India's suspension of the IWT highlight the complex interplay of geopolitical strategies, regional stability, and environmental concerns in South Asia.