India's Economic Vision for 2047

Chief Economic Advisor, V Anantha Nageswaran, emphasizes the need for India to create at least 8 million jobs annually for the next 10-12 years and boost the manufacturing sector's GDP contribution to achieve the vision of a developed country by 2047.

Challenges and Strategies

• India must adapt to a less favorable external environment compared to the past three decades.
• The rise of artificial intelligence, technology, and robotics presents complex challenges, potentially threatening entry-level and low IT-enabled service jobs.
• Balancing labour-centric policies with technological advancements is crucial for policymakers.

Global Integration and SME Development

• Integrating Indian businesses into global value chains and developing a viable small and medium enterprise (SME) sector are essential for becoming a manufacturing powerhouse.
• Investment rates must rise, or existing investments must be optimized, as global capital flows face disruptions due to international conflicts.

Export Competitiveness and Growth Rates

• India's export competitiveness remains vital but may not contribute as significantly to GDP growth as before, dropping from 40% in the first decade of the century to potentially lower in the coming years.
• Focus on improving quality, R&D, logistics, and last-mile connectivity is necessary to enhance export competitiveness.
• Maintaining a 6.5% growth rate sustainably, with potential increases through domestic deregulation, is recommended.

Current Economic Growth and Future Predictions

• India's growth averaged over 8% in the past three years post-COVID.
• UNCTAD forecasts a 6.5% growth rate for India by 2025, bolstered by strong public spending and monetary easing.

In summary, India faces significant challenges in a challenging global environment but can maintain its growth advantage through strategic policy determination and prioritizing deregulation.