India's Strategic Retaliatory Measures Against Pakistan
India has taken a firm stance against Pakistan due to its continuous support and harboring of terrorists. The Government of India's decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which was signed in 1960, is a significant move in this strategy. The treaty initially defined the division of rivers between the two countries, with India showing magnanimity in allowing Pakistan access to certain waters.
Background and Historical Context
- The IWT was mediated by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).
- India was generous in its allocation of water resources to Pakistan.
- Attempts at peace, such as the Sada-e-Sarhad initiative by the Vajpayee government, failed due to Pakistan's recurring anti-India activities.
Pakistan's Economic Challenges
- Pakistan's GDP growth has been slow, with an average growth rate of less than 1.5% from FY17 to FY24.
- Inflation rates are high, with averages of 29.2% and 23.4% in FY23 and FY24, respectively.
- The Pakistani rupee depreciated by 100% between September 2021 and August 2023.
- Defence spending remains high, contributing to economic strain.
Agricultural and Economic Dependencies
- A significant portion of Pakistan's economy, particularly in Punjab and Sindh, relies on agriculture and irrigation.
- Agriculture contributes to 24% of GDP (2024), supporting around two-thirds of the population.
- Key exports like textiles and basmati rice are heavily dependent on irrigation.
The Path Forward
- The belief is that long-term peace requires sacrifices, as exemplified by Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s 1999 message in Lahore.
- The choice for a peaceful relationship lies with the people of Pakistan.
- Agencies like the IMF should reconsider their support, given Pakistan's current state and its impact on global resources.