Changing the frame: On India, forecasting and natural events | Current Affairs | Vision IAS

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Changing the frame: On India, forecasting and natural events

2 min read

Monsoon Rainfall in India

India experienced an 8% increase in monsoon rainfall compared to the normal levels this year, which superficially appears beneficial.

Agricultural Impact

  • The area sown under kharif crops increased by approximately 15 lakh hectares, totaling around 1,110 lakh hectares by mid-September.
  • Rice cultivation saw significant growth, expanding by 8.45 lakh hectares to over 438 lakh hectares, compared to 430 lakh hectares the previous year.
  • Other crops such as pulses, coarse cereals, and oilseeds followed similar upward trends.

Water Availability

The total available water capacity in India’s main reservoirs rose to 163 billion cubic meters (BCM) from 157.8 BCM last year.

Adverse Effects of Excess Rainfall

  • Torrential rains led to flooding in districts of Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Punjab, with some areas becoming isolated due to swollen rivers breaching flood marks.
  • Significant damage occurred due to landslides, urban and rural flooding, land erosion, and siltation.

Regional Rainfall Variations

  • Seasonal rainfall exceeded averages by 27% in northwest India, 15% in central India, and 10% in the south peninsula.

Misinterpretation of Meteorological Events

  • There were multiple reports of 'cloudbursts,' though in meteorological terms, only one instance in Tamil Nadu met the criteria.
  • Mislabeling affects public perception, suggesting rare, unforeseen events rather than preventable occurrences.

Forecasting and Government Responsibility

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasted above-normal rainfall, yet the focus remains on prediction accuracy rather than preparedness for excessive rain events.

There is a need to shift the narrative from viewing excess rains as mere natural generosity to addressing infrastructure shortcomings and enhancing disaster preparedness.

Failing to adapt this approach can be seen as a governmental oversight in ensuring public safety.

  • Tags :
  • India Meteorological Department (IMD)
  • Torrential rains
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