Why in the News?
Recently, Australia and United Kingdom (UK) signed a bilateral defence cooperation agreement also known as Geelong treaty, under AUKUS Pillar I for the next 50 years.
About Geelong Treaty
- Also known as Nuclear-Powered Submarine Partnership and Collaboration Treaty, it aims to support stability and security in the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific.
- Objective: Enable comprehensive cooperation on the design, build, operation, sustainment, and disposal of SSN-AUKUS submarines and enable development of resilient trilateral supply chains.
- It is in line with international nuclear non-proliferation obligations and trilateral AUKUS Naval Nuclear Propulsion Agreement (ANNPA).
About AUKUS
- Established in 2021, it is a security partnership between Australia, the UK, and the US.
- It has two pillars:-
- Pillar 1: Focuses on developing shipbuilding capacities of the three nations, which includes Australia's acquisition of its first SSNs (Nuclear-powered Attack Submarines).
- Pillar 2: Focuses on joint development of eight advanced military capability areas such as autonomy, artificial intelligence (AI), electromagnetic warfare, modelling, and simulation.
- The partnership would see the US sell submarines to Australia starting in the 2030s and the UK jointly produce new submarines with Australia that would enter into service in the early 2040s.
- Strategic Significance of AUKUS
- Strengthens US-led alliance system in Indo-Pacific: It is crucial to counter China's growing influence in the region and also signals US commitment to defend its allies and interests in the region.
- Enhances US access and presence in the region: It becomes true especially in Southeast Asia, where the US has sought to expand its military footprint.
- Boosts to US defence industry: Itcreates new opportunities for arms sales and technology transfers to Australia and the UK.
Opportunities and Challenges of AUKUS
Opportunities of AUKUS | Concerns with respect to AUKUS |
High chances of success: AUKUS nations exhibit high levels of trust among themselves. E.g., Intelligence sharing through Five Eyes alliance. | USA Review: USA has launched a review of AUKUS trilateral security pact. Moreover, USA's push for Australia to raise its defence expenditure to 3.5% of GDP signals USA's expectation of greater burden-sharing in Indo-Pacific security. |
Complements QUAD in Indo-Pacific with a focus on Hard Power: While QUAD and AUKUS both seek to address common security challenges, AUKUS focuses exclusively on 'hard power'. | May undermine QUAD: Some experts assert that Quad may lose relevance with emergence of AUKUS. India is often seen as limiting the Quad's full security potential due to its aversion to military alliances. |
Shift in US' Regional Security Strategy: The US has moved from self-reliant regional security to boosting Indo-Pacific partners' capabilities in response to China. | Lack of Asian participation: Observers argue that AUKUS is a western dominated grouping as it has no Asian participation unlike QUAD. |
Synergy between UK and Australia: It is in sync with Australian National Defence Strategy and U.K.'s Strategic Defence Review.
| Issues in Timely delivery: The USA's current production rate of 1.13 Virginia-class submarines annually is well below the two needed for national defence and the 2.33 needed to meet AUKUS obligations. |
Quick response: Nuclear Submarines (~20 knots) can reach conflict zones much quicker than conventional submarines (6.5 knots) and can stay on station significantly longer. | Nuclear Proliferation: AUKUS agreement could encourage arms race and greater nuclear proliferation in the Pacific. |
Conclusion
India has a rare opportunity to develop a unique set of arrangements of its own with USA and its allies that will strengthen India's Comprehensive National Power as well as enhance its contribution to regional peace and security.
