Recently, escalation in the West Asia has reached new heights as Israel’s strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria led to a retaliatory attack from Iran.
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The attack by Iran was intercepted by Israel, which had deployed a multi-layered air defence, including the Iron Dome, the Arrow and David’s Sling.
Allegedly, Exoatmospheric missiles (EMs) were used to intercept the attack.
Recently, attacks by Houthis in the Red Sea were also reported.
Institutions such as the United Nations, IMF, and World Bank have warned about the threats these conflicts pose to the economies and polities across the regions, including India.
Other Major conflicts in the West Asia
Terrorism factions: Hezbollah in Lebanon, ISIS in Syria etc.
Civil Wars and Insurgency
Sudan: Between two factions of military
Yemen: Houthis conflict.
Egypt: Insurgency in Sinai Peninsula.
About Exoatmospheric missiles (EMs)
EMs, also known as anti-ballistic missiles (ABMs), are designed to intercept and destroy incoming ballistic missiles during mid-course or terminal phase of their trajectory.
They use advanced sensors, such as infrared and radar systems, to detect and track incoming threats and use guidance systems to accurately manoeuvre and intercept targets travelling at high speeds in space.
Different types of exoatmospheric missiles:
Kinetic kill vehicles: Destroy their targets through physical impact.
Directed energy weapons: Use lasers or other energy beams to disable or destroy incoming threats.
What are the impacts of instability in the West Asia?
On India
At Global Level
India’s act of diplomatic and strategic balancing may be tested due to engagement with countries with conflicting interests,
(E.g. emergence of Iran-Russia- China axis).
Maritime Security challenges include drone strikes, hijackings (Houthis attack in Red Sea) impacting freedom of navigation in India's maritime region.
Safety and Security of the Indian diaspora in the middle east region may become a concern.
Threat to Energy Security as India is highly dependent on imports of Crude oil (~85%).
Delay in completion of infrastructure projects such as India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
Impact on Indian Economy
Disruption in global maritime trade and supply chain may lead to a rise in fuel prices.
Negative impact on inflation rate, pharma’s export, trade balance, forex reserves, stock market, value of rupee, and the overall economy.
Rise in shipping costs and insurance premiums.
Diplomatic milestones (E.g. Abraham Accords, Israel-Saudi) may get compromised.
Intensification of maritime security challenges across the Indo-Pacific region in case of attacks on ships of USA, United Kingdom.
Competition between nations for arms race or possession of Nuclear weapons may lead to global instability issues.
Impact on Global Economy
Higher oil prices may lead to higher food prices intensifying food insecurity in many countries.
Economies directly exposed may get downgraded and investment across the globe may suffer due to downgraded sentiment.
International Humanitarian Crisis due to loss of lives, forced displacements and instances of War Crimes (E.g. Rafah Offensive stance of Israel.
Questions being raised on the role and relevance of International institutions such as United Nations Security Council.
Way Forward
Enhance Diplomatic Engagements and negotiations within all parties to refrain them from further violence and seek solutions through diplomacy.
Building Normative Framework and Process through arms control and security negotiations declaration of regional “Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone”leading to demilitarization.
Resolution of the Israel-Palestine issues based on the Two Nation Theoryfor long-term security, peace and stability.
Safeguarding Fiscal and External Sustainability by countries by strengthening policy buffers.
Opportunity for India to emerge as a net security provider and mediator for South-South cooperation.
Maritime Security Operations have been conducted by Indian Navy (Operation Sankalp) and USA (Operation Prosperity Guardian) in the regions of Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, off the East Coast of Somalia to protect from various non-traditional threats present in the region.
Conclusion
India should remain mindful of its wide-ranging interests in the region, such as energy security, maritime security, and the safety and security of the Indian diaspora. Moreover, India can use its civilizational credentials in the region to maintain balanced relationships with different countries and engage strategically with neutral parties to safeguard its geopolitical and geoeconomic interests.
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