Why in the News?

According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) statistical report, 2023 shows Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for rural India for the first time touched 2.1, the replacement rate. 

Key Highlights of the report

• TFR indicates the average number of children a woman would have during her reproductive life
  • National Level: The TFR for India in 2023 is 1.9.
    • 18 States and UTs had reported a TFR of below the replacement level TFR of 2.1.
  • Rural vs. Urban: The TFR in rural areas is 2.1, while in urban areas it is 1.5.
    • This is the first time that TFR in rural India has touched replacement rate. 
  • Highest TFR: Bihar (2.8)
  • Lowest TFR: Delhi (1.2)
• TFR by Education: There is an inverse relationship between the mother's education level and the Total Fertility Rate
  • The TFR for illiterate women in India was 3.3 while the TFR for literate women was 1.8.
• Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR): average number of daughters a woman would have during her lifetime. 
  • National Level: 0.9
  • Rural vs Urban: Rural GRR (1.0) was slightly higher than urban GRR (0.7), which suggests that women in rural areas are having more daughters than women in urban areas.
• Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR) measures the number of live births in a specific age group per 1,000 female population of that same age group.
  • ASFR have sharply decreased for younger women (ages 15-29) but have increased for older women (ages 30-49).
  • Highest fertility rate is in the 25-29 age group (136.8), followed by the 20-24 age group (107.5).
• Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is the number of live births per 1,000 population in a year
  • National Level: The CBR for India stands at 18.4 in 2023, showing a decline of 0.7 points from 2022.
    • The national CBR has declined by 1.6 points over the last five years
  • Rural vs. Urban: CBR is higher in rural areas (20.3) compared to urban areas (14.9)
  • Highest CBR: Bihar (25.8).
  • Lowest CBR: Tamil Nadu (12.0)

Reasons for Decline in Fertility Rate

•  Effective family planning Programme Implementation: It help create a social atmosphere that is favourable to family planning, promoting the acceptance of a "small family norm".
• Changing Social Attitudes towards marriage and reproduction: Women are increasingly exercising choice by marrying late or not at all, often prioritizing careers and financial independence over motherhood.

• High Parenting Standards: The social expectation of intensive parenting (spending significant time and resources on each child's development) makes having many children seem overwhelming or impractical.
• Improved Health and Lower Infant Mortality: Better health conditions, indicated by a lower Infant Mortality Rate (IMR), are linked to higher contraceptive use and lower fertility.
• Weakening of Son Preference: A strong preference for sons can keep fertility rates high, as couples may continue having children until they achieve a desired number of sons.
• Rising Infertility and Use of Abortion: Many experts observe that rising rates of infertility in both men and women and abortions are important factors which could be contributing to this decline in fertility.

Impact of declining Total Fertility Rate

Positive impact

• Economically Active Population: As fertility rates have declined, the proportion of the population in the "economically active" age group of 15-59 years has correspondingly increased.
• Stimulate Economic Growth: Falling fertility rates can boost economic growth by encouraging higher workforce participation, greater savings, and increased investment in physical and human capital.
• Reduce Social Inequities: The slowing of population growth provides an opportunity to ensure that public services like education and health are available to everyone which can help reduce social and regional disparities.
• Environmental Sustainability: Reduce pressures on the environment associated with climate change, depletion of natural resources, and environmental degradation.

Negative Impact

• Impede economic and social progress: Fewer births and smaller populations naturally mean fewer workers, savers, and spenders, potentially sending an economy into contraction.
• Ageing population: States with a longer history of low fertility rates, such as Kerala (TFR 1.5), now have the highest proportion of elderly persons at 15.1%.
• Uneven Regional Growth: Fertility variations may deepen regional inequalities and affect representation.
  • All States reporting higher than replacement level TFR are in northern India — Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.
• Irreversibility of Fertility Decline: Once fertility declines, it rarely rebounds. 
  • Countries like South Korea, which tried to stem the demographic crisis have failed and the fertility rate plunged from 0.78 in 2022 to 0.72 in 2023.

Way Forward

• Adopt a differential policy approach: While low-TFR states may need pro-natal incentives, high-TFR states still require sustained investment in female education and accessible health services.
• Rights-Based Family Planning: Maintain the current rights-based approach to family planning by expanding the basket of contraceptive choices (moving beyond female sterilization).
• Plan for an Ageing Population: This includes considering the sustainability of social security and pension systems.
• Affordable and Subsidized Childcare: Implement universal, high-quality, and subsidized crèche/childcare facilities (like the "Palna Scheme") across urban and semi-urban centers to ensure women can continue their careers.
• Gender-Neutral Parental Leave: Enforce and encourage the use of paid parental leave for both parents to normalize shared caregiving and reduce the career penalty for mothers.