Why in the News?
At the recent APEC Summit in Busan, South Korea, the US President described his meeting with the Chinese President as a "G2" engagement, implying a US-China duopoly in global affairs.
Background of the Meeting
- The meeting took place in the backdrop of an escalating trade war between US and China.
- It resulted in a temporary trade truce including lowering of US tariffs on China, relaxation on export of rare earths from China to US, etc.
G2 (Group of Two)
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Implications of G-2 duopoly
- Global Duopoly & Strategic Realignment: The G-2 framing signals a shift in world order by acknowledging China as a near-equal to the US, prioritizing US–China cooperation while sidelining other powers like EU, Russia, India, and Japan.
- Economic Leverage for China: China's weaponization of rare earth exports reinforces its confidence in holding future bargaining advantages.
- Eroding Security Guarantees: US allies fear that a G-2 setup could reduce the US military presence in East Asia and weaken security commitments. E.g. Taiwan.
- Strained India-US Relationship: The shift comes amid already tense ties including enhanced tariffs on Indian goods.
- Further, the G-2 concept fuels uncertainty about the future of the India-US partnership in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China's rise, e.g. postponement of the Quad summit.
Key Determinants Limiting G-2 Formation
- Political and Ideological Differences: The two nations have vastly different political systems and worldviews. The U.S. champions a rules-based liberal order based on democracy, while China prioritizes sovereignty and state-led development.
- Mutual Distrust and Rivalry: The relationship is primarily defined by strategic competition and rivalry, not cooperation.
- Structural issues such as the status of Taiwan, territorial disputes in the South China Sea, trade wars, and technology restrictions fuel deep suspicion and make a genuine, long-term partnership impossible.
- China's Rejection of the Concept: China has historically resisted formal G2 framing, preferring multilateralism via the United Nations or BRICS, mainly to avoid being seen as a junior partner of the US.
Way ahead for India
- Preserving Strategic Autonomy: by avoiding dependence or subordinate alignment with any single power. E.g. participation in BRICS, QUAD, etc.
- Diversify economic and security partnerships: to minimize vulnerabilities and broaden strategic options by finalizing more Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). E.g. with EU
- Deepening Collaboration: with like-minded regional and global partners to advance national interests. E.g. ASEAN
Conclusion
While talk of a G2 signals the enduring weight of US–China relations, deep mistrust and ideological differences make a true duopoly unlikely. For India, the priority is to uphold strategic autonomy, expand diverse partnerships, and work with like-minded countries to strengthen a multipolar global order.
