Nuclear Governance

Why in the news?

Recently, 11th Review Conference of Parties to the NPT concluded without agreement on a consensus outcome document as U.S and Iran sparred over Tehran's nuclear programme.

More on news

• With no review agreement reached for the third consecutive time, the treaty - cornerstone of global non-proliferation and disarmament- remains in force but diminishing its legitimacy.
• At the last treaty review in 2022, Russia blocked agreement on a final document over its invasion of Ukraine and references to Moscow's occupation of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest.

Global Nuclear Governance Architecture

Success of Nuclear Governance

• Non- proliferation: NPT has helped prove wrong the mid-20th century predictions that 20 to 30 states would acquire nuclear weapons. 
  • Today, only 9 countries possess nuclear weapons, indicating relative success of global non-proliferation efforts.
• Reduction in Global Nuclear Arsenals: Arms control agreements and strategic dialogues, particularly between USA and Russia, led to a substantial reduction in nuclear stockpiles after Cold War.
  • E.g. Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and new START limited each party to a maximum of 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads, significant reduction from Cold War-era levels.
• Verification and Safeguards System: IAEA created an institutional mechanism for monitoring civilian nuclear programmes and detecting diversion of nuclear materials.
  • In 2024, IAEA applied safeguards in 190 states, conducted over 3,000 inspections at more than 1,300 facilities, making it one of the most extensive verification systems in international governance.
• Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones (NWFZs): UN General Assembly reaffirmed (Article VII of NPT) in 1975 to establish NWFZs to strengthened regional security and reinforced norm against nuclear proliferation.
  • Several regions including Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Pacific have legally committed themselves to remain free of nuclear weapons by Treaty of Tlatelolco, Pelindaba, Bangkok,  Rarotonga respectively.
• Multilateral Nuclear Governance: The emergence of institutions such as IAEA, export-control regimes like NSG has provided mechanisms for monitoring, regulation, and cooperation on nuclear issues.

Challenges Associated with Nuclear Governance

• Persistent Nuclear Proliferation Risks: Concerns over North Korea's nuclear weapons programme and disputes surrounding Iran's nuclear activities highlight limitations of existing non-proliferation mechanisms.
• Ineffective Global Platforms: Geopolitical divisions, competing national interests hinder consensus-building in multilateral nuclear forums.
  • E.g. A four-week UN conference reviewing NPT ended without agreement.
• Lack of participation: Important nuclear agreements lack universal participation, limiting their effectiveness.
  • E.g. CTBT has not entered into force due to pending ratifications by key states.
• Slow Progress towards Nuclear Disarmament: Nuclear-weapon states have made limited progress toward their disarmament commitments despite repeated international calls for reductions.
  • According to SIPRI, approximately 12,241 nuclear warheads existed globally in early 2024.
• Discriminatory Nature: Global nuclear governance framework is often criticized for institutionalizing unequal rights and obligations between recognized nuclear-weapon states and non-nuclear states.
  • E.g. NPT recognizes only five nuclear-weapon states based on a historical cut-off date.

Way ahead

• Revitalize Arms Control and Disarmament Efforts: Negotiate new arms-control agreements and establish a credible roadmap for gradual, verifiable reductions in nuclear arsenals.
• Strengthen Non-Proliferation and Verification Mechanisms: Enhance powers and technological capabilities of IAEA to detect undeclared nuclear activities and ensure treaty compliance.
• Reform Institutions: Make forums such as the NPT Review Conference and Conference on Disarmament more representative, effective, and capable of consensus-building.
• Develop Rules for Emerging Technologies: Create international norms governing AI, cyber warfare, hypersonic weapons, and autonomous systems that could undermine nuclear stability.
• Enhance Nuclear Security and Counter-Terrorism Cooperation: Strengthen protection of nuclear materials and facilities through improved cybersecurity, intelligence sharing, and measures against illicit trafficking.
• Promote Strategic Dialogue and Confidence-Building: Expand crisis communication channels, transparency measures, and military-to-military engagement to reduce risks of miscalculation and accidental escalation among nuclear-armed states.